Ranked matches at moment seem to be wildly random, with newbies running into exceptional players at odd Elos. There's a method to this madness, and it's the result of Elo compression combined with the wild swings of placement matches.
It's another case of simple math. Consider the formula used for the Elo reset:
Pre-Season 3 Elo = (Season 2 Elo - 1200) / 2 + 1200
The practical upshot of this formula is that the further you were from 1200 Elo, the greater your gain or loss. At the same time, early placement matches can swing Elo by as much as 50 points. In this situation one victory or loss can is worth the equivalent of 100 Elo at the end of Season 2. It doesn't take a psychic to see where this is going.
Take two hypothetical players, one a 1400 at the end of Season 2 and the other 1800, and they'll be at 1300 and 1500 Elo respectively at the start of Pre-Season 3. All it takes to bridge what was a 400 Elo gap in Season 2 are two lucky wins and two unlucky losses respectively. Given the luck of some players, bad or good, even greater gaps can occur with reasonable regularity. The result are games which are even more random than normal, which feeds into the process and sustains the insanity of it all.
As I've played the past few days I've run into players who were obviously platinum-level down in the 1300 range, as well as players who were obviously lucky to have achieved bronze in the very same game. It's an intriguing time to queue.
Over the next week or so the madness will die down, but for now you at least understand what brought it all about in the first place.
Showing posts with label Elo. Show all posts
Showing posts with label Elo. Show all posts
Friday, November 16, 2012
Wednesday, November 14, 2012
Update: Dr. Mundo or How I Learned to Stop Worrying and Love the Queue
Preseason 3 has begun, Elos have been reset, rewards have been issued, and placement matches are underway. Now is the perfect time to overcome a longstanding problem that's been hindering me for some time, fear.
In both of the previous seasons I experienced a severe mental block when it came to playing solo queue. Having spent so much time poring over the intellectual side of the game, theorycrafting and testing mechanics, min/maxing junglers, and analyzing plays and team compositions, I became irrationally fearful that any failing on my part could be construed as a referendum on these important practices. In my own strange, twisted way I have an ego about my Elo, and that needs to go if I am to actually improve at the game.
I have a fairly straightforward plan for rehabilitation, queue and play without regard for Elo. It takes approximately a month for habits to be established, so hopefully by 2013 queuing will be thoroughly engrained in my habits.
If you also have problems queuing I highly recommend taking advantage of this particular moment in time. Due to Elo resets and distance from any sort of reckoning the pre/early season has the least pressure of any time period. If you wait, as I did in past seasons, for the pressure to mount the problem will only be exacerbated.
For now I'm learning to stop worrying and love to queue. More than that, I'm not focused on winning as much as I am learning. This means avoiding comfortable champions and roles, trying new things, having concrete goals and the like. I'll be streaming my misadventures when I can, complete with my new webcam. If you've ever wanted to make fun of me for silly mannerisms and idiosyncrasies, there's never been a better time.
In both of the previous seasons I experienced a severe mental block when it came to playing solo queue. Having spent so much time poring over the intellectual side of the game, theorycrafting and testing mechanics, min/maxing junglers, and analyzing plays and team compositions, I became irrationally fearful that any failing on my part could be construed as a referendum on these important practices. In my own strange, twisted way I have an ego about my Elo, and that needs to go if I am to actually improve at the game.
I have a fairly straightforward plan for rehabilitation, queue and play without regard for Elo. It takes approximately a month for habits to be established, so hopefully by 2013 queuing will be thoroughly engrained in my habits.
If you also have problems queuing I highly recommend taking advantage of this particular moment in time. Due to Elo resets and distance from any sort of reckoning the pre/early season has the least pressure of any time period. If you wait, as I did in past seasons, for the pressure to mount the problem will only be exacerbated.
For now I'm learning to stop worrying and love to queue. More than that, I'm not focused on winning as much as I am learning. This means avoiding comfortable champions and roles, trying new things, having concrete goals and the like. I'll be streaming my misadventures when I can, complete with my new webcam. If you've ever wanted to make fun of me for silly mannerisms and idiosyncrasies, there's never been a better time.
Tuesday, September 4, 2012
Thought: Little Things That Kill
There are various mathematical proofs and logical arguments for the non-existence of Elo Hell. These proofs are entirely accurate and largely ineffective; fighting personal anecdotes of injustice with math is rarely a fruitful pursuit. The purpose of this post isn't to engage in that futile debate, but to use math, logic, and a little common sense to help improve one's Elo.
The first, and most important, mathematical point to be made is simple: Every game is worth, on average, 22-28 Elo. If you win a game you are only 11-14 Elo higher than you were before, but you're 22-28 Elo higher than you would have been had you lost. Because every game you win is also a game you didn't lose, and vice versa, the stakes on an individual game are higher than most players realize.
In practice this means that any improvement in play, even a minor one, can lead to fairly large increases in Elo. If improving your last hitting leads to 5 additional wins out of 100 games played, then instead of ending that series at 1200 Elo you'll be 1310-1340 Elo. Add an additional win for learning to consistently keep Baron warded, two for knowing when you're overextended, and a couple more for timing buffs/objectives and you're 200 Elo higher than you would have been. The key to increasing your Elo is to improve your play.
The hard part is identifying one's flaws and correcting them. It's easy to tell when you CS poorly, but most other flaws are tiny, infrequent, and unquantifiable. Did you lose that fight at Dragon because of poor positioning or because you pulled Dragon? Did you pick the wrong champion or were you outplayed? Could you have saved top lane if you'd rushed that way instead of continuing to farm? These are the little things that kill, small decisions which are innocuous but critical to the outcome of a game.
The single easiest step you can take to help yourself is to install LoLReplay. With the replay files it saves you can observe your games objectively, separated from the moment to moment stresses of actual play. Flaws that might have escaped your notice during an intense match are much easier to see when you're relaxed and detached from the proceedings. Best of all, you can share these replays with friends and mentors and get their input. Skimming through your past games may not be the most exciting activity, but it's better than repeating your mistakes and turning them into habits.
As a final philosophical point, focusing on increasing Elo is a detrimental mindset. It makes it harder to identify mistakes, make observations, and learn. In the short term focusing on improvement might lead to losses, but in the long term you'll see substantial Elo gains. Whether you think your true Elo is 500 higher than your current Elo or don't care at all, improving is the surest way to move up the ladder.
The first, and most important, mathematical point to be made is simple: Every game is worth, on average, 22-28 Elo. If you win a game you are only 11-14 Elo higher than you were before, but you're 22-28 Elo higher than you would have been had you lost. Because every game you win is also a game you didn't lose, and vice versa, the stakes on an individual game are higher than most players realize.
In practice this means that any improvement in play, even a minor one, can lead to fairly large increases in Elo. If improving your last hitting leads to 5 additional wins out of 100 games played, then instead of ending that series at 1200 Elo you'll be 1310-1340 Elo. Add an additional win for learning to consistently keep Baron warded, two for knowing when you're overextended, and a couple more for timing buffs/objectives and you're 200 Elo higher than you would have been. The key to increasing your Elo is to improve your play.
The hard part is identifying one's flaws and correcting them. It's easy to tell when you CS poorly, but most other flaws are tiny, infrequent, and unquantifiable. Did you lose that fight at Dragon because of poor positioning or because you pulled Dragon? Did you pick the wrong champion or were you outplayed? Could you have saved top lane if you'd rushed that way instead of continuing to farm? These are the little things that kill, small decisions which are innocuous but critical to the outcome of a game.
The single easiest step you can take to help yourself is to install LoLReplay. With the replay files it saves you can observe your games objectively, separated from the moment to moment stresses of actual play. Flaws that might have escaped your notice during an intense match are much easier to see when you're relaxed and detached from the proceedings. Best of all, you can share these replays with friends and mentors and get their input. Skimming through your past games may not be the most exciting activity, but it's better than repeating your mistakes and turning them into habits.
As a final philosophical point, focusing on increasing Elo is a detrimental mindset. It makes it harder to identify mistakes, make observations, and learn. In the short term focusing on improvement might lead to losses, but in the long term you'll see substantial Elo gains. Whether you think your true Elo is 500 higher than your current Elo or don't care at all, improving is the surest way to move up the ladder.
Saturday, August 4, 2012
Quote: On Low Elo
"The path of the skilled player is beset on all sides by the profanities of the ragers and the inanity of low Elo."
-Jules, Pulp Fiction
-Jules, Pulp Fiction
Sunday, July 8, 2012
Quote: On Algorithms
"It has been observed that a pure Elo algorithm if it were practicable
would be the most perfect ranking. Experience has proved that no
position is more false than this."
-Alexander Hamilton
-Alexander Hamilton
Monday, May 21, 2012
Wednesday, May 16, 2012
Thought: The Meaning of Elo
Elo in LoL is not a measure of individual skill. This is a common assumption, but one that is deeply flawed. Though there is a correlation between Elo and skill in general, Elo is incapable of accurately predicting a player's proficiency in any given role, champion, or specific skill. Elo is, at best, a measure of ranking and nothing more.
That ranking, however, has value. The community uses it, for better or worse, as a means of evaluating the legitimacy of a given player's opinion. Individual players use it as a means to measure their progress or worth. The value of Elo isn't intrinsic, but emergent from the needs and desires of the playerbase. It is therefore unsurprising that many players obsess over their Elo.
Unfortunately, focusing so thoroughly on Elo is detrimental to actually making progress in ranked play. The entire concept of "true" Elo is toxic to self-improvement; players who believe they are better than their peers will eschew practice and introspection to simply grind out games. That method might work in the short term, but will eventually hit a wall. Long term progress requires all but ignoring Elo to focus on personal improvement.
This is not to say that solo queue is never frustrating, or that there aren't trolls, morons, and ragers ruining the experience. However, worrying about that which you can not control will neither gain you Elo nor improve your play.
While skill is not measured by Elo, increasing your skills is the surest method of improving your ranking. Work on your abilities by observing tournaments, practicing mechanics, asking friends for help, or even taking anger management classes, and a better ranking will follow on its own.
That ranking, however, has value. The community uses it, for better or worse, as a means of evaluating the legitimacy of a given player's opinion. Individual players use it as a means to measure their progress or worth. The value of Elo isn't intrinsic, but emergent from the needs and desires of the playerbase. It is therefore unsurprising that many players obsess over their Elo.
Unfortunately, focusing so thoroughly on Elo is detrimental to actually making progress in ranked play. The entire concept of "true" Elo is toxic to self-improvement; players who believe they are better than their peers will eschew practice and introspection to simply grind out games. That method might work in the short term, but will eventually hit a wall. Long term progress requires all but ignoring Elo to focus on personal improvement.
This is not to say that solo queue is never frustrating, or that there aren't trolls, morons, and ragers ruining the experience. However, worrying about that which you can not control will neither gain you Elo nor improve your play.
While skill is not measured by Elo, increasing your skills is the surest method of improving your ranking. Work on your abilities by observing tournaments, practicing mechanics, asking friends for help, or even taking anger management classes, and a better ranking will follow on its own.
Saturday, April 14, 2012
Quote: On Elo
"Elo does nothing; it does not possess champion rosters, it does not win lanes. It is players, real, living, who do all this."
-Karl Marx
-Karl Marx
Wednesday, April 11, 2012
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