Thought: The Future of AD Carries

As discussed yesterday, AD carries are in a bit of a bind. The many changes in Season 3, combined with the proliferation of assassins and AD casters, has made running away the hallmark of their role in team fights. The problem is large and important enough to draw the attention of players across the globe, and many notable voices are weighing in.

For my part, I see two solutions to the issue:

1. Build tankier on AD carries, allowing them to survive burst and contribute to the fight.
2. Replace AD carries with another champion, and approach the problems of taking towers/objectives another way.

Obviously #2 is a little more drastic than #1, but we'll be discussing both.

Building tankier on AD carries seems problematic in that it will cut into the multiplicative scaling which makes them so prized. With fewer items dedicated to offense, the AD carry won't reach the ridiculous levels of damage that allow them to win team fights later in the game. In the end, can AD carries still be effective if they aren't able to dedicate four items to offense?

The problem is actually very similar to one that occasionally pops up in MMORPGs with raiding and dungeons as a core part of gameplay. There are often unavoidable damage sources in a fight, and if you don't have sufficient defenses to survive them it doesn't matter how good of a healer or damage dealer you are, you can't do much while you're dead. The same principle applies here, all that multiplicative damage scaling is useless if you don't survive long enough to make use of it.

A lot does depends on the carry in question. Carries with good AD scaling and built-in steroids will do inherently better with fewer offensive items. Graves, Vayne, and Kog'maw are excellent examples of this. Those who rely on achieving a critical mass of items won't do quite so well. The list of popular carries is bound to shift and change, as damage increases in importance versus mobility.

However, it's also true that multiplicative scaling is heavily reliant on having all factors represented. To drop one item in favor of defenses is to dramatically reduce a carry's late game damage. If their damage doesn't end up being significant better than that of another champion, why not simply have another champion?

Aside from multiplicative damage, the primary reason for having an AD carry is to siege turrets. To replace them requires having an alternative strategy. It might be split-pushing, diving, or simply overwhelming the opponent through jungle/objective control, but a strategy must be present. AD carries, however, have shone as the safest method of pushing a turret for some time.

There are reasonably close alternatives. A number of bruiser champions have sufficient range to siege turrets as well. Jayce, Nidalee, and Kayle have the range and the item builds for the job. Quite a few AP champions also have a good deal of range, and with a lot of AP and/or Lich Bane can do significant damage to turrets. If teams fail to find a consistent answer to assassins, these are alternatives that don't demand a radical change in how towers are taken late-game.

As things stands, AD carries are certainly still viable, especially if the enemy team lacks assassins or AD casters, so it's unlikely they'll disappear entirely. At the same time, the likelihood that we will see compositions with no AD carry at all is the highest it may ever be.

Thought: Of Assassins and Carries

The game is still in a state of flux following the massive Season 3 changes, and will remain so for some time. Black Cleaver stacking was just the tip of the iceberg, the first shot in what will be a long series of metas, overpowered champions, and heretofore unheard of item builds.

Murky as the future may be, there is at least one clear trend in the present which deserves attention. Assassins and AD casters have exploded in popularity, to the detriment of AD carries. Unless a coordinated team is prepared to peel for an AD carry, they can expect to spend most of a team fight running for their life with death the punishment for the smallest misstep. This isn't limited to the NA servers either; players and publications in Korea have been discussing the issue. The usefulness and necessity of the AD carry role is, for the first time since before Season 1, seriously being called into question.

So what, exactly, happened in Season 3 to make AD carries so vulnerable?

First and foremost, the vast majority of AD carry items received significant nerfs. Phantom Dancer's movement speed was made identical to Zeal and it costs more than before. Bloodthirster's Life Steal was reduced. Infinity Edge lost Attack Damage. Guardian Angel's defenses and passive were heavily nerfed. Overall, AD carries do less damage than before, have less defense, and are less mobile.

At the same time, the new itemization isn't sufficient to make up the difference. Runaan's Hurricane, as interesting an item as it may seem, isn't useful if you can't kite your opponents long enough to do damage. Statikk Shiv is a worse version of Phantom Dancer. Sword of the Divine has limited usefulness if you can't kill your target outright with it. The only light in the tunnel is the new Mercurial Scimitar, except it actually helps assassins and AD casters as much or more. In short, the Season 3 itemization changes did little except nerf AD carries.

On top of all of that almost every Season 3 change buffed assassins and AD casters. Deathfire Grasp is now an incredible asset to assassins like Akali, Fizz, or LeBlanc. Black Cleaver is an insanely strong item for AD assassins and casters like Pantheon, Talon, Zed, and Kha'zix. Combined with the penetration changes and nerfs to defense, these champions are able to assassinate any carry who comes in range.

It is because of these circumstances that the usefulness of AD carries is being questioned. Is it worth babysitting them for so much of the game if, in the end, they don't do significantly more damage than a champion who requires half as much attention and care? Are AD carries really necessary for pushing/sieging turrets, or can we find a way to do it without them? Couldn't champions who become powerful much quicker be advantageous? These are the thoughts that have started crossing the minds of many players, and in the coming months we'll begin to harvest what these seeds have planted.

Tomorrow I'll write down my thoughts about how one might alter the role of the AD, or replace them outright. Stay tuned.

Meta: Swapping AP and AD

The current lane setups have largely been set in stone for months, leading many players to declare the meta stale. While arguably the game hasn't been this multidimensional in its history, there are many alternatives to the current lanes which have yet to be fully explored. For the benefit of those players tired of the current lanes, here's an idea.

Swap your AP and AD carries.

Before we dive too far into this, let me emphasize that this idea has yet to be fully explored. This may not be the transformative idea players are looking for, or it may. It is, however, a different setup that has the potential to be competitive.

This idea is exactly as stated, place your ranged AD mid instead of bottom, and your AP carry bottom instead of mid. Pick an AD who scales well with levels (e.g. Ezreal, Corki) and an AP who scales well with farm (e.g. Cassiopeia, Veigar), and you're good to go. At face value it's a very simple idea, but there's a lot going on behind the scenes.

First and foremost, there are many AP champions who are weak against AD, such as Kassadin and Morgana. Though the threat of burst damage is always there, the AD carry can abuse their auto-attack range and their ability to push lanes without using mana to put the AP carry in an awkward position. In addition, Life Steal is cheaper, more readily available, and more effective than Spell Vamp. With the right matchup an AD can dominate an AP opponent.

These weaknesses get turned upside down bottom lane. Using auto-attacks to sustain is dangerous for the AD because the lane is much longer. Auto-attack harass is more dangerous and less effective due to the presence of an enemy support. Meanwhile, the high burst damage of the AP is a huge benefit for ganks and skirmishes. In the bottom lane it's the AD carry who is typically weak against the AP carry.

Blue buff is the most obviously hitch in this strategy. If you're on blue team you almost certainly need Soraka to support your AP. Thankfully on purple team Blue buff is readily accessible even from bottom lane. For this reason this team composition heavily favors purple team.

Again, this is not a tried and tested setup. It is, however, different and something to try if you're tired of playing with the same lane setup. Just be careful with your picks, give it a whirl, and see if this breaks your meta-boredom.