Thought: The Future of AD Carries

As discussed yesterday, AD carries are in a bit of a bind. The many changes in Season 3, combined with the proliferation of assassins and AD casters, has made running away the hallmark of their role in team fights. The problem is large and important enough to draw the attention of players across the globe, and many notable voices are weighing in.

For my part, I see two solutions to the issue:

1. Build tankier on AD carries, allowing them to survive burst and contribute to the fight.
2. Replace AD carries with another champion, and approach the problems of taking towers/objectives another way.

Obviously #2 is a little more drastic than #1, but we'll be discussing both.

Building tankier on AD carries seems problematic in that it will cut into the multiplicative scaling which makes them so prized. With fewer items dedicated to offense, the AD carry won't reach the ridiculous levels of damage that allow them to win team fights later in the game. In the end, can AD carries still be effective if they aren't able to dedicate four items to offense?

The problem is actually very similar to one that occasionally pops up in MMORPGs with raiding and dungeons as a core part of gameplay. There are often unavoidable damage sources in a fight, and if you don't have sufficient defenses to survive them it doesn't matter how good of a healer or damage dealer you are, you can't do much while you're dead. The same principle applies here, all that multiplicative damage scaling is useless if you don't survive long enough to make use of it.

A lot does depends on the carry in question. Carries with good AD scaling and built-in steroids will do inherently better with fewer offensive items. Graves, Vayne, and Kog'maw are excellent examples of this. Those who rely on achieving a critical mass of items won't do quite so well. The list of popular carries is bound to shift and change, as damage increases in importance versus mobility.

However, it's also true that multiplicative scaling is heavily reliant on having all factors represented. To drop one item in favor of defenses is to dramatically reduce a carry's late game damage. If their damage doesn't end up being significant better than that of another champion, why not simply have another champion?

Aside from multiplicative damage, the primary reason for having an AD carry is to siege turrets. To replace them requires having an alternative strategy. It might be split-pushing, diving, or simply overwhelming the opponent through jungle/objective control, but a strategy must be present. AD carries, however, have shone as the safest method of pushing a turret for some time.

There are reasonably close alternatives. A number of bruiser champions have sufficient range to siege turrets as well. Jayce, Nidalee, and Kayle have the range and the item builds for the job. Quite a few AP champions also have a good deal of range, and with a lot of AP and/or Lich Bane can do significant damage to turrets. If teams fail to find a consistent answer to assassins, these are alternatives that don't demand a radical change in how towers are taken late-game.

As things stands, AD carries are certainly still viable, especially if the enemy team lacks assassins or AD casters, so it's unlikely they'll disappear entirely. At the same time, the likelihood that we will see compositions with no AD carry at all is the highest it may ever be.