While the shortest game in the series, the third game still presents many interesting points for analysis. How did Taipei Assassins get ahead so quickly? How did the situation degrade to the point that Azubu Frost surrendered rather than attempt to play it out? As usual, it all starts with the picks and bans.
TPA's bans reflect their respect for the two team compositions Frost has obviously mastered, the AoE composition from the first match and their legendary abduction compositions. Having proved that they also can field a strong Karthus, TPA took two critical abduction champions and two critical AoE champions off the table.
Frost's bans might be mistaken as targeting poke compositions, of which Jayce and Nidalee are typically central. Rather, Frost simply couldn't afford to let TPA grab any of those three champions as their first pick. Karthus had been instrumental in both games thus far, warranting a ban to keep him out of TPA's hands. Giving a team who dominates the early game champions like Nidalee or Jayce would have similarly been a grievous error.
TPA did not hesitate to grab Orianna for Toyz, who crushed the legendary Froggen using her. With Sona out of the picture TPA was not afraid of Ezreal, and instead grabbed Dr. Mundo and Nunu. These picks reflect confidence in the autonomy of TPA's carries, aside from their own crowd control the only help they might expect from the supporting roles would be slows. In return, Lilballz would hopefully dominate the jungle on one of his best champions, providing his team an early game advantage, and Nunu would buff both of their as of yet unpicked carries while massively debuffing the opposing AD carry. Having two carries who scale phenomenally with Nunu's Bloodboil, Vayne and Jax, would provide redundancy for Nunu's utility. Moreover, this composition brimmed with movement speed, allowing for both excellent chasing and escaping.
TPA's picks left Shen and Anivia open for Frost, a strong combo as it can be incredibly difficult to burn through Anivia as well as her egg in time to block Shen from arriving via his ultimate. With Sona gone and TPA constantly dominating the early game, Frost picked Leona and Ezreal in order to have a strong kill lane and additional crowd control for the latter parts of the game. The Vladimir pick looked to add substantial sustained damage and amplification to the quagmire which Shen, Leona, and Anivia would create in team fights. This was another AoE composition from Frost, but hopefully one which would do better early-game.
Frost's plan to have a substantially stronger early game worked fairly well. By the ninth minute there was no significant different advantage in gold on either side, and for the most part both teams had a similar amount of control. However, CloudTemplar made several mistakes which began to tilt the game in favor of TPA. First, he was late to arrive at his Red after it respawned, allowing Lilballz to steal it. Next, CloudTemplar attempted to steal TPA's Red, but did not pull it back far enough to warn him of Lilballz approach. Finally, he compounded these mistakes by saving Smite for a potential Dragon on the chance a subsequent gank bottom succeeded. As a result of these mistakes, and Madlife's attempt to help, TPA took both Reds and first blood. With CloudTemplar severely wounded, Stanley was able to fearlessly harass Shy, leading to a second kill roughly a minute later. While the resulting gold gap wasn't as significant as in previous games, it was still an early game disadvantage they could not afford.
It's important to note TPA's next actions. Lilballz picked up an Oracle's and completely cleared bottom lane of wards while Bebe and Mistake pushed. While this failed to set up a tower dive, it allowed Lilballz and Toyz to steal Frost's Blue. At the same moment that Lilballz began taking Blue, Stanley finished pushing top and immediately moved toward Dragon. Frost could not contest with RapidStar out of mana, Shy stuck top, and all lanes pushed. Frost mitigated the damage as best they could by counter-stealing TPA's Blue, but even that was dangerous as they were very nearly caught and it allowed Toyz to push and cause RapidStar to miss farm. The critical point of interest is that TPA's plays were safe. While they could have attempted to bully Frost with their early game advantage, they instead worked as a team to cautiously and methodically extend it.
Almost every play thereafter followed a similar format. After a fight bottom where Madlife died TPA was able to take a turret with little resistance. Then, with bottom pushed and TPA converging mid, Toyz began a fight with RapidStar. While the rest of TPA arrived too late to save Toyz or kill RapidStar, Madlife was killed and the tower was left undefended. Meanwhile, Stanley was strong enough to push Shy out of lane by himself and take the turret. TPA set up an ambush in to cut off attempts to reinforce the turret, and though it didn't work out it reflected TPA's incredibly talent for creating a domino effect with their advantages. While the enemy is still reeling from the last hit, strike again.
This continued for the rest of the game after CloudTemplar fell to Toyz while retreating from an attempt to catch Lilballz. With Shen out of the picture, TPA pressured mid while Bebe farmed and pushed bottom. Woong and RapidStar attempted to mitigate the issue by taking Blue, but were instead pincered. With Frost down two of their carries, TPA picked up a turret and began to move toward Dragon. CloudTemplar and Shy, misjudging the next move and positioning of TPA, chased Stanley only to get caught and double killed. Having retreated through a ward, TPA was aware that attempting Dragon would be dangerous and instead moved back to see if Frost chased. When it initially seemed as though they hadn't, they began to recall. However, Frost then attempted Dragon, in what can only be described as desperation, and were again pincered, resulting in two more kills and Dragon for TPA. In the span of a mere 4 minutes the gold gap exploded from roughly 3.5k to 10.5k.
Once TPA took another tower and Baron, it was obvious that nothing short of a miracle would bring Frost back into the game. At the same time, Frost had continuously compounded their mistakes, underestimating TPA's tenacity, movement speed, and game sense. Clearly off their game, Frost made the tough but clear decision to end the game immediately and preserve their psychological stamina than allow TPA to wear them down any longer.
The psychology of League of Legends is an occasional topic of interest, but it isn't particularly different than any other form of competition. Being aware of your mental state and mitigating any factors that might diminish focus is extremely important. Even if Frost had extended the game another ten or fifteen minutes, they likely would have only delayed the inevitable and exhausted themselves. Frost's decision to staunch the bleeding and accept the loss shows that they understand the mental beating a team can suffer.
With TPA's team fighting and early game proving to be incredibly difficult to overcome, and their own breakdown to overcome, Frost would make a daring decision for the fourth, and ultimately final, game. That analysis will come tomorrow.
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